Ghana's cocoa production is expected to fall by at least 16% in the 2026 to 2027 season, market regulator COCOBOD has said.
It cites weather effects, the crop's natural fruit-bearing cycle and disease, adding detail to warnings farmers have raised.
The regulator, responding to questions from Reuters, said the decline reflects the likelihood of El Niño conditions, excessive rain in May and June this year, and the physiological bearing pattern of the cocoa tree, which tends to alternate between higher- and lower-yield years.
COCOBOD said a low cherelle load — the number of small pods that survive to maturity — in the Western and Western North regions was consistent with these factors.
The regulator said the outlook in those two regions, which together account for more than half of Ghana's output, had been aggravated by the combined effects of swollen shoot disease, ageing cocoa farms, and an increase in illegal gold mining.
Known locally as galamsey, the illegal mining causes farms to be taken over by miners.
The projection for the 12-month season that begins in September follows warnings from farmers in the Western and Western North regions, who reported sharply reduced pod counts this season.
COCOBOD said it has taken action to limit losses, including rehabilitating infected farms in the Western North Region, expanding insecticide and fungicide spraying and reintroducing a nationwide free fertiliser distribution scheme for the 2026/27 crop year.
West Africa's cocoa outlook has previously been revised lower, and output in the Ivory Coast, the world's biggest cocoa producer, is expected to fall by more than 10% next season.
Reuters