Analysis: How Nduom can decide the 2016 elections

In 2012, the People’s Progressive Party (PPP) flagbearer, Papa Kwesi Nduom, garnered only 64,362 votes, representing 0.59% of the votes.

By contrast, his main rivals, the National Democratic Congress (NDC)’s John Mahama and the New Patriotic Party (NPP)’s Nana Akufo-Addo, had 5,574,761 (50.7%) and 5,248,898 (47.74%).

The result represented a crushing defeat for Nduom, who invested a lot of money and time in his campaign.

Ahead of the December 2016 elections, Nduom has varied his strategy in a bid to drastically improve his performance.

First, he has replaced his 2012 running mate Eva Lokko with Brigitte Dzogbenuku, a former Miss Ghana winner and an accomplished entrepreneur.

He has also become more assertive in criticising the qualities and policies of his main rivals while portraying himself as the best man for the job.

He recently launched a bristling condemnation of Akufo-Addo, stressing that he was not competent enough to be president.

“Since 2012, what has Nana Akufo-Addo been doing? Since 2012, he’s been saying ‘I want to be president, I want to be president’, that is all he’s been going round doing. All he wants is to be president and not the development of the people.

“He may have done some wonderful things in the past but today what can we say he has done that we can see, take a look at, and vote for him?” he said.

Of incumbent John Mahama, Nduom said those who voted for him in the 2012 elections had become ashamed of their action and were disappointed due to what he said was the poor performance of the government.

Endgame
People have questioned why Nduom keeps pumping money into the elections in spite of the fact that his performance has been poor. So what is his endgame in this election – what does he seek to achieve?

Nduom knows he cannot win the elections outright. First, Ghanaians are simply not ready and even willing to make a wholesale switch from the two main parties to the PPP. Second, the PPP lacks the big money budget – hundreds of millions of dollars, if not billions – required to significantly influence the election nationwide.

So, in the short term, analysts believe Nduom primary objective is to gather enough votes to enable the election go into a second term.

He said it himself in a recent interview that:

“PPP is going to get a chunk of votes not just to send this election into a run-off for some other people to go and compete; we will send this thing to a run-off and be one of the [parties] competing in the end for who should be elected president.”

What he did not say, however, is that getting a good result in the polls will enable the PPP secure a deal with one of the two main parties to win the second round.

Such a deal would enable the PPP select its people for some key positions in government, giving Nduom a role in government’s policy making.

In the long term, the PPP, according to analysts, will gradually build on this feat by marshaling the needed resources to build capacity at the constituency level and become a formidable third force in the country.

To achieve all these, Nduom will first need to convince Ghanaians that a vote for him will not be a wasted ballot, something that has dogged his campaign for years.

The PPP founder has sought to counter this perception by arguing that a vote is wasted when the party people elect fail to perform.

Accordingly, Nduom has stated that those who voted for Mahama wasted their vote.

“All those who voted for John Dramani Mahama they have wasted their votes and the votes they have wasted that is the votes that have now sent us to IMF because John Mahama said he cannot manage the economy,” he said at a campaign rally in Accra.

Now, let’s examine the key strengths of Nduom.

1. Competence
He is widely seen as competent and the best man for the job by many Ghanaians. The economy is greatly challenged, a development exemplified by high interest rates, high inflation, high unemployment and low GDP growth.

Nduom is believed to possess what it takes to oversee a structural transformation of the economy and unleash the jobs many Ghanaians desperately seek.

2. Track record of success
Nduom has a successful record as a businessman. He set up several businesses and created thousands of jobs. Regarded as one of the richest men in Ghana, many believe that he can replicate his success in business as president.

3. Presidential
A lot of voters consider the physical appearance of presidential candidates in making a choice. When it comes to this, Nduom has an edge over many of his competitors. He looks healthy and presidential and will definitely appeal to a lot of floating voters. 

4. Alternative to “failed parties”
Nduom is regarded as a beacon of hope by many who feel that the main political parties - NDC and NPP - have failed Ghanaians over the decades. A lot of people desperately wish to see him get elected in the hope that he would the restore the glory of the country.

5. Experience
He is hugely experienced and has what it takes to hit the ground running on his first day in office, having served in the John Kufour administration first as minister for energy and then minister for public sector reform.
He was also chairman of the National Development Planning Commission and Member of Parliament for Komenda.

Conclusion
The problem for Nduom's campaign has always been the perception among many Ghanaians that he cannot garner sufficient votes to win. This causes many to hold back from voting for him out of fear of wasting their votes. If the PPP founder can convince prospective voters to change this mindset, he will be a major hurricane that will shake the country in December.