The outlook for oil demand is expected to normalize by 2025, according to HE Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, OPEC Secretary-General.
In a speech given, at the Crescent Ideas Forum on November 23, Barkindo said the outlook for crude oil may look anaemic now but anticipated a gradual normalization of demand growth as the world recovers from the COVID-19 shock.
“Our analysts foresee global oil demand returning to relatively robust annual growth and reaching nearly 104 million bpd by 2025,” he said.
A portion of his speech follows laying out estimates for recovery:
“In the longer term, there are a number of factors that will drive consumption, such as population and economic growth, especially in developing and emerging economies. We expect the global economy to more than double from 2019 to 2045, to $258 trillion, and the population to grow by at least 20%, to 9.5 billion.
“Simply put, our world will continue to thirst for energy. The WOO anticipates that oil will remain the dominant fuel in the global energy mix for the foreseeable future, accounting for a nearly 28% share in 2045, followed by gas at around 25%.
“It is important to point out that it is the mainstream consensus of the leading reporting agencies is that oil and gas will retain their prominence in the energy mix for the foreseeable future.
“In absolute terms, we see oil demand rising by almost 10 million bpd from 2019’s levels to around 109 million bpd in 2040, and then begin to plateau. The non-OECD will be the growth powerhouse, accounting for around 68% of overall oil demand by 2045, with the economic tigers of India and China leading this growth.
“In absolute terms, we expect oil demand in the developing and emerging economies rising by 22.5 million bpd to around 74 million bpd in 2045.